Donald Trump has once again floated the idea of giving Americans a fourth stimulus-style payment – this time framed as a $2,000 “tariff dividend” aimed specifically at moderate-income households.

However in spite of growing speculation, families hoping for extra cash this holiday season won’t be seeing it under the Christmas tree.

During remarks on November 17, 2025, the US president Trump clarified both the timing and the targeted recipients.

According to him, the proposed dividend would be directed toward “individuals of moderate income”, adding that the payments would most likely arrive sometime in 2026, ahead of the midterm elections.

“We’ve taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money,” Trump said.

“We’re going to be issuing dividends later on… of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.”

Also, Trump argued that part of the tariff revenue would be used to pay down the nation’s $37 trillion national debt, with the remaining funds directed toward these proposed dividends.

In spite of the buzz, Trump confirmed last week that no checks will arrive before Christmas 2025: “No, no. Not for this year. It’ll be next year sometime.”

What Exactly Is a Tariff Dividend?

A tariff dividend differs from traditional stimulus checks. Rather than being funded by general federal revenues, it would be financed by tariff income collected from imports.

Yet, experts w:a:rn that the math may not add up. Tax Foundation analyst Erica York noted: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150 million adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far.”

As of September 30, 2025, the federal government had collected $195 billion in tariff revenue, still far short of covering a nationwide $2,000 payout.

Several officials argue the checks could be issued based on projected future tariff revenue, with the Treasury forecasting approximately $3 trillion over the next decade.

Who Counts as “Moderate-Income”?

Donald Trump has said clearly that the payments would exclude high-income earners and be directed primarily at middle- and lower-income families, though exact thresholds have not been formally defined.

Based on Pew Research Center standards:

Lower-income households: under $55,820

Moderate-income (middle-income) households: $55,820 to $167,460
High-income households: above $167,460

These thresholds shift depending on family size and regional cost of living, meaning “moderate income” in a high-cost state like California looks very different than in states like Mississippi or West Virginia.

For context, Trump’s earlier pandemic-era stimulus checks phased out at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples, recommending the new plan could follow a similar model.

Trump’s Other Proposed Payout Ideas

This isn’t the POTUS Trump’s first attempt to redirect government revenue toward taxpayers:

1. July 2025: Tariff rebate checks introduced in Sen. Josh Hawley’s American Worker Rebate Act, offering $600–$2,400 per family. The bill has not passed.

2. February 2025: A proposed $5,000 “DOGE dividend” tied to government-efficiency savings, with few details released since.

Bottom Line: No Christmas Check

While speculation about a fourth stimulus-style payment continues to swirl on social media, there is no official approval from Congress or the IRS.

Trump has reiterated that moderate-income Americans, not wealthy households, would receive the proposed $2,000 tariff dividend, but not until 2026 at the earliest.

For now, families shouldn’t expect a holiday windfall and should remain wary of misinformation or scam attempts tied to the proposed checks.